Communicating uncertainties in natural hazard forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
California aftershock hazard forecasts.
1) quantile points at the selected times, S, corresponding to the expected probability and ± 1 SD (Table 1). The standard error in P rapidly decreases with increasing time after the mainshock due to the inclusion of current data. For example, at S = 1 day after the mainshock, the ± 1 SD range about the generic 1-day interval probability (0.052) is 0.034 to 0.075 (Table 1). Rydelek suggests esti...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0096-3941
DOI: 10.1029/2012eo380001